Sentiment förklarat

Bra artikel!

Skönt!

Jag ska printa ut några ex.

Varje gång ngn bekant börjar prata investeringar efter att ha läst main stream media så kan jag bara ge dom artikeln, slippa försöka dra det där snacket själv:-)

Hela metallmarknaden, kanske inte olja, definitivt guld o mark:

Satt just o kollade gårdar till salu här nere i östergötland, blir billigt o köpa
skog o gårdar om ett år eller så.

Ny stor gård till salu på slätten, 300 ha skog där det har huggits som bara den sista 10 åren o 300 ha åker för det facila priset av 90 millar.
Iofs billigt om man jmr med avstyckade hästgårdar på 5 ha med garanterat dålig mark för 5 millar.

Bullish sentiment fell 1.1 percentage points to 25.6% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months remained at the lowest level registered since August 26, 2010. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially be unchanged over the next six months, rose 0.9 percentage points to 33.0%. This is the sixth consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been above its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, edged up 0.1 percentage points to 41.4%. Pessimism was last higher on September 2, 2010. Bearish sentiment has now been above its historical average of 30% for 13 out of the last 14 weeks.

The continuing volatility in the markets is dampening individual investors’ enthusiasm for stocks. (The uneven pace of the economic recovery, still high gas prices and European sovereign debt issues are not helping either.) This can be seen in the bullish sentiment readings, which have fallen for four consecutive weeks and have been below average for six consecutive weeks. Even with the decline, bullish sentiment is just slightly beyond one standard deviation of its historical norm, making the current reading atypical, but still not an outlier.

Detta kan ju inte vara någonting annat än bullish! :-)

AAII: STOCK ALLOCATIONS FALL TO 7 MONTH LOW

Stock and stock fund allocations fell to a seven-month low according to the May AAII Asset Allocation Survey. Individual investors kept 61.0% of their portfolios in equities last month, a drop of 1.9 percentage points. Even with the decline, May was the eighth consecutive month that stock and stock fund allocations were above their historical average of 60.0%.

Bond and bond fund allocations rose 2.5 percentage points to 21.1%, a six-month high. May was the 24th consecutive month that fixed-income allocations have been above their historical average of 15%.

Cash allocations slipped 0.6 percentage points to 17.9%, a four-month low. May was the 11th consecutive month that cash allocations have been below their historical average of 25%.

The decline in stock and stock fund allocations occurred as optimism about the direction of stock prices fell to its lowest level since last August in our sentiment survey. Ongoing volatility in the stock market reduced some of the cautious optimism that we have been seeing. A rebound in bond prices last month also played a role. It should be noted, however, that last month’s shifts did not impact the trends we have been seeing in our asset allocation survey. Both stock and bond allocations stayed above their historical averages for yet another month.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded in the latest weekly AAII Sentiment Survey, ending 6/1/2011. Optimism increased 4.6 percentage points to 30.2%. Even with the increase, bullish sentiment remained below its historical average of 39% for the seventh consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially flat over the next six months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 36.4%. This is only the third time since 2005 that neutral sentiment has been above 36%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, dropped 8.0 percentage points to 33.4%. Though this is a four-week low, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30% for the 14th time in 15 weeks.

The improvement in bullish sentiment followed an atypically low readings during the past two weeks and occurred as stock prices largely rebounded during the survey period. (The survey runs from Thursday 12:01 a.m. to Wednesday 11:59 p.m.) Even with the changes, optimism remained below average while pessimism remained above average. The market’s volatility, the uneven pace of the economic recovery and inflationary pressures are all dampening individual investors’ spirits.

This week’s neutral sentiment reading is unusually high relative to what we’ve been seeing over the past several years and suggests an elevated level of uncertainty. Neutral sentiment, however, remains well within its historical norms. Higher readings were registered throughout the 1987 – 2005 period. The record high is 62.0%, which was recorded on June 3, 1988.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Intressant artikel på PragCap

http://pragcap.com/are-the-analysts-panicked

Som vanligt beror det på vad man jämför med?

Jag jämför med 2007;)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gENiUAv4_8k/TenmEYjvBDI/AAAAAAAAEp4/flFsschL3Og/s1600/Put%2BCall%2BRatio.png

Källa

http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 5.8 percentage points to 24.4% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the lowest level of optimism recorded since August 26, 2010. Bullish sentiment has now been below its historical average for eight consecutive weeks.

chart

fint, var hitta du det chartet?

I min dator. Du anar inte vad som finns där ;-)

Längst ner på sidan finns en "Download historical data....." knapp.

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Så är det bara att köra ett excel chart på vald historik

alltid intressant med data o historiskt så ser vi ju att det har relevans,
men det är inte drakarna som är tillfrågade:

"The average AAII member is a male in his late-50s with a graduate degree. In addition, over half of AAII members have an investment portfolio of at least $500,000. Taking this into account, the AAII Sentiment Survey is unique among sentiment surveys in that it represents the upper echelon of active, hands-on individual investors."


sen har jag lite svårt att se att detta lilla hack skulle vara allt som blivit om low cashed funds som varit megalånga sen 09-10 har blivit total bearish

men man ska ju "read the tape" så jag modererar mitt björniga sentiment lite för dgn,

blir tokig om ja inte får under 1100 !! omx i dag, det bara SKA bli det,

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

100 punkter ner på omx idag? annars "blir" du tokig.

Nja, du är nog redan certifierad ;-)

Och så redigerar du utan att förklara.

tänkte att det gav sig självt, >1100 menade ja så klart,
bekräftar nertrenden o OMX,
3:1 eller 3:3 vet i tusan just nu men är ju lite skitsamma,
postadei omx 3e juni strängen tidigare,

blir lite upphetsad vid sånna här tilfällen, vindögd när ja skriver, ett öga på tickern, under 12k på dojjan vore fint, washout,
sen är det ju o singla slant hur mkt man ska täcka, men blir en rejäl del,

Men du är ju certifierad. Då kan man ju inte veta vad du menar.

Annan indikator

Bullish sentiment rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months rose 4.6 percentage points to 29.0%. Despite the improvement, this is the ninth consecutive week that bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 39%.

Neutral Sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.3 percentage points to 28.3%. The historical average is 31%.

The “Dumb Money” indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator is extremely bearish.

Jag ser en kurva som kan se ut hur som helst för jag vet inte innehållet i ekvationen.

#11 Aldur, hur ser kurvan ut nu?

Bullish sentiment edged up 0.9 percentage points to 38.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the highest level of optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months since April 14, 2011. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment remained below its historical average of 39% for the 11th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, jumped 4.7 percentage points to 31.5%. This is a four-week high. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, dropped 5.5 percentage points to 30.2%. This is the lowest level of pessimism since April 7, 2011. This drop puts bearish sentiment essentially even with its historical average of 30%.

Pessimism over the direction of stock prices has dropped for three consecutive weeks after setting a 2011 high of 47.7%. The stabilization and recent rebound in stock prices has helped to lower the level of worry. Even with this week’s improvement, bearish sentiment has been at or above its historical average of 30% for 18 out of the last 19 weeks. This is a sign that individual investors remain cautious, which is not surprising given the ongoing lack of resolution to the debt ceiling unresolved and the slower pace of economic growth

#21 Dumb Money indicator updated

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 3.5 percentage points to 41.8% in the latest AAIISentiment Survey. This is first the time that optimism has been above its historical average of 39% since April 14, 2011.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, rose 2.1 percentage points to 33.5%. This is a five-week high for neutral sentiment. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, dropped 5.5 percentage points to 24.7%. This is the lowest level of pessimism since January 13, 2011. It is also the just the second time in 20 weeks that bearish sentiment has been below its historical average of 30%.

Bearish sentiment has plunged by a cumulative 23.0 percentage points since setting a 2011 high of 47.7% on June 9. Bullish sentiment has improved 17.4 percentage points over the same period. A combination of factors has led to this shift, including rebounding stock prices and falling gasoline prices. Optimism is close to its historical average, however, and many investors still have concerns about the pace of economic growth and the ongoing debate over the debt ceiling.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 2.5 percentage points in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism declined to 39.3%, putting it essentially even with its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next months, fell 2.1 percentage points to 31.4%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 4.6 percentage points to 29.2%. This was the first time pessimism has increased in five weeks. The historical average is 30%.

This week’s results showed a reversion to the mean, with all three readings near their historical averages. The weak June jobs report likely added to individual investors’ concerns about the pace of economic growth. The lack of progress on resolving the debt ceiling is not helping either. On the other hand, expectations for good second-quarter earnings and the ability of stocks to hold onto much of their recent gains are contributing to individual investors’ cautiously optimistic stance.

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey reveals that bullish sentiment among individual investors has exceeded bearish sentiment for the first time since the end of July. The percentage of individual investors who expect stock prices to rise over the next six months continued its slow upward climb, up 2.2% to a six-week high of 38.6%. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 6.4 percentage points to 29.0%. Even with the strong upward bump this week, neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31% for seven consecutive weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, dropped by 8.6 percentage points to 32.3%. While this is the 25th time in 28 weeks that pessimism has been above its historical average of 30%, the 8.6 percentage point drop is the largest single week decline in bearish sentiment since December 23, 2010.

All of the sentiment readings are now within a few percentage points of their long-term averages.

Bullish sentiment increased 0.3 percentage points to 30.5% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. The slight change kept optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months below its historical average of 39% for the eighth consecutive week. This was also the 19th time in 22 weeks that optimism has been below average.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points to 28.2%. This is the ninth consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 1.1 percentage points to 41.3%. This was the fifth time in the past nine weeks that bearish sentiment has been above 40%. It is also the 27th time out of the last 30 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

The numbers show continued pessimism on the part of individual investors. Bearish sentiment is back to being more than one standard deviation above average, making it unusually high, but not extraordinarily so. Bullish sentiment, though below average, is not yet at levels that would make it usually low, however.

The pessimism is a continued reaction to the negative headlines. Individual investors are concerned about the volatility in stock prices, the slow pace of economic growth, sovereign debt concerns (both in the U.S. and in Europe) and Washington politics.

Good news for the bulls here – some of the world’s most noted permabulls are sounding increasingly bearish here.  In his most recent weekly commentary noted optimist, Bob Doll of BlackRock, waved the caution flag:

“Last week’s decline marks the fourth time in recent weeks that stocks have tested the lows reached in August (marked by 1,100 for the S&P 500). Whether or not stocks pierce that low will have much to do with what happens in Europe. Should the chaos increase and contagion spread, markets would likely move below that level.

Looking ahead, we expect that equity markets will continue to struggle until we begin to see some actual improvements in the economy. Specifically, stocks need to see some improvements in payrolls and consumer spending levels. As we indicated earlier, we do believe that the US economy should slowly improve, but risks from Europe are mounting.”

If you’re looking for a positive sign within the sea of bad news, this sort of change in sentiment might just be the thing you’re looking for.  After all, equities reflect the summation of the beliefs of participants regarding future performance compared to reality.  If sentiment swings deeply negative and essentially overshoots where the economy is in terms of reality, then you get a natural bottoming effect where the sellers exhaust themselves and the market as a whole begins to realize that there is value at current prices.

Bullish sentiment rebounded to a five-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months rose 2.7 percentage points to 35.2%. Even with the improvement, bullish sentiment remained below its historical average of 39% for the 11th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat, fell 1.6 percentage points to 19.0%. This is the lowest level of neutral sentiment since November 11, 2010.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 1.1 percentage points to 45.7%. This was the eighth time in the past 10 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above 40%. It is also the 30th time out of the last 33 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

Individual investors continue to fret about the direction of stock prices. Concerns about the pace of economic growth, worries about European sovereign debt, frustration with Washington and volatile market conditions are combining to keep bearish sentiment at historically high levels.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 4.5 percentage points to 39.8%. This is the highest level of optimism since July 21, 2011. It also ends a streak of 11 weeks when bullish sentiment was below its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 4.8 percentage points to 23.9%. This was the 13th consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, plunged 9.4 percentage points to 36.4%. This is a six-week low for pessimism. It is also only the third time in the past 11 weeks that bearish sentiment has been below 40%. Despite this week’s decrease, pessimism is above its historical average of 30% for the 31st time out of the last 34 weeks.

Bullish sentiment rebounded, while bearish sentiment fell to a level not seen since last January in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 4.6 percentage points to 44.7%. This is the highest percentage of optimism since February 17, 2011. This is also the third consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, edged up 0.5 percentage points to 30.7%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 5.1 percentage points to 24.6%. This is the lowest level of pessimism since January 13, 2011. Bearish sentiment has now been below its historical average for three consecutive weeks.

Bullish sentiment stayed above 40% for the fourth consecutive week but bearish sentiment rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 2.8 percentage points, to 41.9%. Nonetheless, this was the first time optimism has stayed above 40% for four consecutive weeks since February 2011. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 3.7 percentage points to 27.0%. This is the 17th time in the past 18 weeks that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded by 6.5 percentage points to 31.0%. This was the first time in four weeks that pessimism has been above its historical average of 30%.

AAII members continue to be more upbeat about the six-month direction of stocks prices than they were in August and September. Optimism remains cautious, however, as is evidenced by the bullish sentiment reading. The slow level of U.S. economic growth, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis,Washington politics and the market’s daily volatility are combining to keep confidence at historically modest modest levels, and the nerves of some individual investors are frayed.

Bullish sentiment rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, but bearish sentiment stayed above average for the fourth consecutive week.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded 5.5 percentage points to 38.6%. Even with the improvement, optimism remained below its historical average of 39% for the third consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 0.9 percentage points to 26.7%. This is an eight-week low for neutral sentiment. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 4.7 percentage points to 34.8%. Even with the decrease, this is the fourth consecutive week, and the 36th out of 42, that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

The ongoing market volatility, combined with slow economic growth, the European sovereign debt crisis and Washington politics, continues to leave many AAII members frustrated and cautious. Improvements in optimism this year have proven to be fragile in part due to the headline-driven nature of the current market climate. It should also be noted that many individual investors have responded by becoming more conservative with their portfolio allocations, as was evident in our November Asset Allocation Survey.

länk

Bullish sentiment edged up slightly, while bearish sentiment stayed at unusually low levels in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 0.3 percentage points to 49.1%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by the survey since February 10, 2011, when bullish sentiment reached 49.4%. The historic average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain unchanged over the next six months, slipped 0.3 percentage points to 33.7%. Even with the decrease, neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31% for the third time in the past four weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, was unchanged at 17.2%. Pessimism not only stayed at its lowest level since December 23, 2010, it also remained at a reading that is more than one standard deviation below the historical average of 30%.

The positive start to 2012 is keeping individual investors hopeful about the short-term direction of stock prices. The survey results also continue to reflect an overall improvement in moods with bullish sentiment now above its historical average for nine out of the last 14 weeks. Even with the improvement in sentiment, individual investors still remain concerned about the pace of economic growth, Washington politics and the European sovereign debt crisis.

AAII bears the lowest since 2005 according to UBS

NYSE short interest lowest in a year and AAII Bears at 17% lowest in 7 yrs.

aa, tom FT tog upp det i papperstidningen idag...

Bullish sentiment is above average for the fourth consecutive week, while bearish sentiment rebounded in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.9 percentage points to 47.2%. Even with the drop, bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 39% for the fourth consecutive week and the 10th time out of the last 15 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially flat over the next six months, fell 4.5 percentage points to 29.2%. This is the first time in three weeks that neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 6.4 percentage points to 23.6%. Although this is a three-week high, pessimism is below its historical average of 30% for the fourth time in the past five weeks.

Sentiment remains upbeat, as individual investors are hopeful about the short-term direction of prices. Even though many are optimistic, individual investors still remain concerned about the pace of economic growth, Washington politics and the European sovereign debt crisis.

Bullish sentiment remained above its historical average, while bearish sentient rebounded to a five-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell to 43.8%, a 4.6 percentage-point decline. Despite the pullback, optimism is above its historical average for the sixth consecutive week and the seventh out of the past eight weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 31.1%. Nonetheless, neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31% for the fifth time in seven weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded by 6.2 percentage points to 25.1%. This is the highest level of pessimism since December 29, 2011. Even with the increase, bearish sentiment remains below it historical average of 30% for the sixth time in seven weeks.

Though the level of optimism declined in this week’s survey, individual investors continue to remain hopeful about the six-month direction of stock prices. Since bearish sentiment had been at unusually low levels and AAII members are concerned about Europe’s sovereign debt problems, a rebound in bearish sentiment is not surprising.

Bearish sentiment rebounded to its highest level since December 29, 2011 in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment remains above its historical average, however.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 8.9 percentage points to 42.7%. This is a seven-week low for optimism. Even with the drop, bullish sentiment stayed above its historical average of 39% for the eighth consecutive week and the ninth out of the last 10 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, rose 2.5 percentage points to 30.7%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded to 26.6%, a rise of 6.4 percentage points. This is a seven-week high for pessimism. Even with the increase, bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 30% for the seventh consecutive week, and the eighth out of the last nine weeks.

A shift in attention back to Greece’s fiscal problems has caused some individual investors to become less optimistic about the six-month direction of stock prices. It is also likely that the downward drift in the markets is having an impact, though some of the shift simply reflects a reversion back toward the historical averages registered by the survey.

Even with the increase in bearish sentiment, improving U.S. economic conditions are causing many individual investors to be hopeful that stock prices will rise over the next six months. Bullish sentiment remains above 40%, as it has throughout all of 2011 so far.

#21 Dumb Money Indicator

The “Dumb Money” indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator shows extreme bullishness.

Bullish sentiment is surging according the most recent Charles Schwab active trader survey.  CNBC reported that the survey shows bullishness at its highest level since Schwab began the survey 4 years ago:

Bearish sentiment surged from being below average to an unusually high level in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, bullish sentiment plunged to a seven-month low.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 10.0 percentage points to 28.1%. This is the lowest level of optimism registered by our survey since September 22, 2011. The historical average for bullish sentiment is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 3.7 percentage points to 30.3%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, surged 13.8 percentage points to 41.6%. This is the highest level of pessimism registered by our survey since October 6, 2011. It also the first time bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30% since December 29, 2011.

The difference between bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread, fell to -13.5 percentage points. This ended a 14-week streak of positive double-digit differentials, the longest such streak since March 2004. It is also the first negative double-digit spread since last October.

Neutral sentiment rose to a four-month high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism about the short-term direction of stock prices topped optimism for the second consecutive week.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded to 31.2%. Despite the three-percentage-point rise, bullish sentiment stayed below its historical average of 39% for the second consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay unchanged over the next six months, jumped 4.7 percentage points to 35.0%. This is the highest neutral sentiment has been since December 22, 2011. It is also the third time in four weeks that neutral sentiment has been above its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stocks prices will fall over the next six months, fell to 33.8%. Even with the 7.7-percentage-point plunge, bearish sentiment stayed above its historical average of 30% for the second consecutive week.

The difference between bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread, narrowed to -2.6 percentage points. This is the first time the spread has been negative for two consecutive weeks since December 1, 2011.

Neutral sentiment readings at the current level have been unusual over the past few years. Since the bear market ended in March 2009, neutral sentiment has only registered 35% or higher six times. The recent return of volatility to the market combined with conflicting signals about the U.S.and the global economy are having an impact on individual investor sentiment.

Bullish sentiment fell to a seven-month low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 3.5 percentage points to 27.6%. This is the lowest level of optimism recorded in the survey since September 22, 2011. This is also the fourth consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been below its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, was unchanged at 35.0%. This is the fourth time in five weeks that neutral sentiment has been above its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.6 percentage points to 37.4%. This is the third consecutive week that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

The difference between bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread, worsened to -9.8 percentage points. This is the first time the spread has been negative for three consecutive weeks since October 6, 2011.

Har du ->

http://pragcap.com/bullish-sentiment-plunges-to-a-7-month-low

Klipp o klistrat??

japp. framgår också väl av bilden.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded 7.8 percentage points to 35.4%. This is the highest level of optimism in a month. Nonetheless, bullish sentiment remained below its historical average of 39% for the fifth consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 1.2 percentage points to 36.1%. This is the highest neutral sentiment has been since December 22, 2011. It is also the fifth time in six weeks that neutral sentiment has been above its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 8.9 percentage points to 28.5%. This is a four-week low for pessimism. It is also the first time in four weeks that bearish sentiment has been below its historical average of 30%.

Bearish sentiment rose to a seven-month high, while bullish sentiment fell to an eight-month low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 10.0 percentage points to 25.4%. This is the lowest level of optimism recorded by the survey since September 22, 2011. This is also the sixth consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been below its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 3.6 percentage points to 32.5%. This is a four-week low. Nonetheless, neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31% for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth out of the past seven weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 13.6 percentage points to 42.1%. This is the highest level of pessimism recorded by the survey since October 6, 2011. It is also the fourth time in the past five weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

Bullish sentiment is at an unusually low level, and bearish sentiment is at an unusually high level. In quantitative terms, both readings are more than one standard deviation from their historical norms. Last year, bearish sentiment exceeded 44% five times between August and October. Thus, though pessimism is unusually high, it is not high enough to be correlated with a forthcoming market reversal. A bearish sentiment reading above 50% would be a stronger contrarian signal.

Disappointing April employment data, the French presidential election, and a return of downside market volatility combined to fray individual investors’ nerves. The continuing above-average level of neutral sentiment, however, shows that there is an ongoing push and pull of bullish factors (e.g., improved corporate profits, U.S. economic growth) and bearish factors (concerns about the pace of growth, Europe, high gas prices, etc.).

Bullish sentiment is near a two-year low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, while bearish sentiment has spiked by 17.5 percentage points over the past two weeks.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 1.8 percentage points to 23.6%. This is the lowest level of optimism recorded in the survey since August 26, 2010. This is also the seventh consecutive week that bearish sentiment has been below its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 2.1 percentage points to 30.4%. This is the just the second time in the past eight weeks that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.9 percentage points to 46.0%. This is the highest level of pessimism recorded by the survey since September 29, 2011. This is also the sixth consecutive week that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

The difference between bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread, widened to -22.4 points. This is the most negative the bull-bear spread has been since September 22, 2011.

Bullish sentiment is unusually low, but it would have to fall below 18% to be considered extraordinarily low (two standard deviations below average). Similarly, bearish sentiment above 50% or a bull-bear spread below -29 points would be more correlated with market reversals. Last year, bearish sentiment topped 46% three times during August and September.

Bullish sentiment rebounded as bearish sentiment pulled back from unusually high levels in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 6.9 percentage points to 30.5%. This is the eighth consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been below its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, edged up 0.4 percentage points to 30.9%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 7.3 percentage points to 38.7%. Even with the drop, bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 30% for the sixth time in seven weeks.

Bearish sentiment continued to spread among individual investors to an unusually high level, while bullish sentiment deteriorated in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 0.6 percentage points to 27.4%. This is the tenth consecutive week that optimism has been below its historical average of 39%. The current bullish sentiment reading is more than one standard deviation below the long-term average.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, declined 3.2% to 26.8%. This is the fourth consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%. It is the lowest neutral reading since December 15, 2011.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.8 percentage points to 45.8%. This is the eighth time in the past nine weeks that pessimism has been above its historical average of 30%. It is the second week in row that bearish sentiment exceeded the long-term average by more than one standard deviation.

The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread, widened to -18.4 percentage points. This is the fourth negative double-digit spread in the past five weeks.

#0

Lite mer kul från JT

Annan bild

The percentage of AAII members describing themselves as bullish topped those describing themselves as bearish for the first time sinceMay 3, 2012, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 6.0 percentage points to 36.5%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by the survey since April 5, 2012. Even with the increase, bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 1.5 percentage points to 36.2%. This is the highest neutral sentiment has been since December 22, 2011. It is also the fifth time in six weeks that neutral sentiment has been above its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, plunged 7.6 percentage points to 27.4%. Pessimism was last lower on March 29, 2012. This is the first time in 14 weeks and just the second time in 18 weeks that bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30%.

The ongoing rise in stock prices is giving some AAII members hope about the short-term direction of stock prices and is curtailing short-term fears for others. The optimism is cautious, however, as concerns about slowing global economic growth, Washington politics, the European sovereign debt crisis and further market volatility remain very much front and center. The ongoing streak of below average bullish sentiment is the longest since a 29-week period between April 2, 1993, and October 15, 1993.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Makrohedgefonder som baserar sina investeringsbeslut på
ekonomiska trender täcker korta positioner på europeiska aktiemarknader i den
snabbaste takten på tre år.

Det rapporterar Bloomberg News baserat på data insamlad av nyhetsbyrån
tillsammans med JP Morgan Chase.

Anledningen till utvecklingen är spekulation om att policymakare kommer öka
insatserna mot skuldkrisen, med ECB-chefen Mario Draghis löfte om att försvara
euron som ett exempel.

Data från Londonbaserade Markit visar vidare att 2,9 procent av aktierna inom
Stoxx Europe 600-indexet är utlånade, ned från 3,4 procent i maj. Enligt dessa
data har Elekta varit ett av de mest kortade bolagen och 18 procent av det
Stockholmsnoterade hälsovårdsaktier har varit utlånade, skriver Bloomberg News
vidare.

Bullish sentiment is above its historical average for the first time since March 29, 2012, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.1 percentage points to 42.0%. This reading ends a streak of 20 consecutive weeks with bullish sentiment readings below the historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay unchanged over the next six months, fell 2.9 percentage points to 32.2%. Even with the decline, neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31% for the fourth consecutive week and the eighth out of the last 10.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 2.2 percentage points to 25.9%. This is the fourth consecutive week that bearish sentiment has declined. It is also the lowest level of pessimism recorded by our survey since March 29, 2012. The historical average is 30%.

Since bullish sentiment reached nearly a two-year low of 22.2% on July 19, 2012, optimism has rebounded by a cumulative 19.8 percentage points. Rising stock prices, a lack of new negative macro headlines and data showing that the U.S. economy is not stalling have all combined to improve individual investors’ moods. The optimism is cautious, however, as individual investors continue to fret about slowing global economic growth, Washington politics, and the European sovereign debt crisis. New negative headlines or a return of downward market volatility would dampen the current short-term optimism for stocks.

Bears and contrarians may notice that this week’s readings are close to those registered on March 29, 2012, right as the first quarter’s rally was reaching its peak. This is simply a coincidence (and hopefully not one that ends up foreshadowing future events). This week’s readings are well within the typical ranges we have seen throughout the history of the survey.

Bearish sentiment spiked to its highest level since August 2011, as bullish sentiment fell in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 9.7 percentage points to 28.8%. The drop puts optimism at a four-week low. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 39% for the 12th consecutive week and the 32nd time in 33 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.8 percentage points to 22.4%. Even with the increase, neutral sentiment stayed below its historical average of 31% for the ninth time in 10 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, surged 8.9 percentage points higher to 48.8%. This is the highest pessimism has been since August 4, 2011. It is also the 12th consecutive week and the 28th out of the last 32 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.

Bearish sentiment is at unusually high levels, but not so high that it would be considered extraordinarily high. (In statistical terms, pessimism is less than two standard deviations away from its historical average.) The sharp increase comes as the market has pulled back, some large-cap stocks have declined notably over the past several weeks and uncertainty about the fiscal cliff looms. Many individual investors also continue to fret about the slow pace of economic growth and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

det som är lite märkligt är att vix är på låga nivåer

ingen fear och behov av att skydda innehaven?

vid förra dippen i våras steg vix betydligt mer på ungefär samma nedgång i sp500

två möjligheter

1) det är bara en dipp i upptrenden och köpläge för nästa uppvåg

2) vi har långt kvar till botten...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=^vix;range=ytd;compare=^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Bullish sentiment rose to its second-highest level of the year, as bearish sentiment fell for the fourth time in the past five weeks in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 3.2 percentage points to 46.4%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by our survey since February 9, 2012. It is also the fourth consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, rose 2.1 percentage points to 28.8%. Even with the increase, neutral sentiment remains below its historical average of 30.5% for the 10th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 5.3 percentage points to 24.8%. This is the lowest level of pessimism registered by our survey since February 9, 2012. It is also the first time bearish sentiment has been below its historical average of 30.5% on consecutive weeks since August 23, 2012.

Though bullish sentiment is near its high and bearish sentiment is near its low for the year, both remain well within their typical long-term ranges. Optimism seems high right now because pessimism has been above average for most of this year.

Individual investors’ short-term outlook for stock prices has improved over the past few weeks, however. A rebound in stock prices, monetary stimulus, continued economic growth and seasonality are all playing a role. Likely also helping is the crowding out of other potentially negative news headlines by the ongoing fiscal cliff negotiations.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how the Federal Reserve’s announcement of more bond purchases and introduction of an unemployment rate target impacted their sentiment towards stock. About 40% of respondents said it helps the stocks. Roughly 20% thought it would not have much of an impact. Some respondents said they thought the market has become dependent on monetary stimulus, inflation is a worry or that the recent announcement is bad for bond prices. A few respondents said the fiscal cliff negotiations are having a bigger impact on their short-term outlook.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 46.4%, up 3.2 percentage points

• Neutral: 28.8%, up 2.1 percentage points

• Bearish: 24.8%, down 5.3 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 39.0%

• Neutral: 30.5%

• Bearish: 30.5%

Mvh H3NPHLO

Even with a small decline in optimism, more than 40% of individual investors describe themselves as bullish in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 2.5 percentage points to 43.9%. This is the seventh time in eight weeks that optimism has been above 40%. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 2.1 percentage points to 28.7%. This is a four-week high. Even with the improvement, neutral sentiment remained below its historical average of 30.5% for the 14th consecutive week and the 16th time in 18 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, edged up 0.4 percentage points to 27.3%. This is the first time since August 2012 that pessimism is below 30% on consecutive weeks. This is also the fifth time in six weeks week that bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5%.

Sentiment about the short-term direction of stock prices shifted last November and we continue to see many individual investors express optimism. There is not one single event which caused this shift, but rather a combination of higher stock prices, monetary stimulus, continued economic growth and seasonality. It is important to note, however, that bullish and bearish sentiment remain well within their typical historical ranges. Thus, while individual investors are comparatively more optimistic, it would be a mistake to describe them as exuberant.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey

· Bullish: 43.9%, down 2.5 percentage points

· Neutral: 28.7%, up 2.1 percentage points

· Bearish: 27.3%, up 0.4 percentage points

Historical averages:

· Bullish: 39.0%

· Neutral: 30.5%

· Bearish: 30.5%

Mvh H3NPHLO

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

After topping 50% for the first time since February, bullish sentiment dropped back below 50% last week. According to the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment dropped from 52.34% down to 48.04%. In spite of the drop, though, bullish sentiment is still high enough to rank as the third highest weekly reading in the last year.

Mvh H3NPHLO

Dumb money sell signal

Mvh, holiday --- Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans

#65 Vilka program har den indikatorn?

#65. Intressant diagram helt klart. Också intresserad av hur indikatorn är byggd..

Mvh

.............................................................................

"Keep it simple stupid, and don't fall in love with the down side!"

#66: Ett nyhetsbrev från Tactical Beta. Dom har rätt bra förklaringar på sin site.

http://tactical-beta.com/2013/03/03/weekly-sentiment-report-on-the-verge/

Mvh, holiday --- Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Kostnad? Orkade inte läsa...

en sida man kan kolla in lite olika bull/bear..

http://bullandbearwise.com/IndexHistoryChart.asp

Ny säljsignal för dumb money signal. (Den förra ångrade sig)

Länk: http://tactical-beta.com/2013/04/14/weekly-sentiment-report-its-time/

The “Dumb Money” indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market:

1) Investors Intelligence;

2) MarketVane;

3) American Association of Individual Investors;

4) the put call ratio.

The indicator has crossed below the upper trading band. This is a sell signal.

Mvh, holiday --- Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

hås?

#72

En svala gör ingen sommar. Nä men svarsfrekvensen i just denna veckas undersökning var sjukt låg.

Mvh H3NPHLO